Analysis of Geographical Distribution of Abies in China under Climate Change

doi:10.7525/j.issn.1673-5102.2018.01.005

Abstract

Abstract: China is the country which has the most abundant and the widest geographical distribution of Abies Mill. species in the world. It is also the key area for studying the causes and law of Abies distribution. We collected the data of geographical distribution of Abies in China in three ways: Chinese Virtual Herbarium, Global Biodiversity Information Facility and relevant literatures. Based on the current and future climate scenarios, the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt) was used to simulate the potential distribution of Abies. Also, we analysed of habitat suitability and evaluated the protective capability of various regions in China, using GIS spatial analysis functions. The results showed that: (1)Southwestern Sichuan, northern Yunnan, as well as southeastern Tibet are the hot spots for Abies in China; (2)The area of suitable habitat of Abies in China will significantly reduce under the future climate change scenario; (3)The suitable habitat has the tendency of moving northwards in the future; (4)Yunnan province has the highest protective capability under the current climate scenario. Under the future climate change scenario, the protective capability of the western regions in China will increase, while that of the central and eastern regions will decline. This study can provide a theoretical basis and reference value for the protection of Abies.

Key words: Abies, climate change, MaxEnt, habitat suitability, protective capability

CLC Number:

S791.14

LIU Ran, WANG Chun-Jing, HE Jian, ZHANG Zhi-Xiang. Analysis of Geographical Distribution of Abies in China under Climate Change[J]. Bulletin of Botanical Research, 2018, 38(1): 37-46.

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