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Bulletin of Botanical Research ›› 2019, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (3): 395-406.doi: 10.7525/j.issn.1673-5102.2019.03.010

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Predicting Potential Distribution of Two Species of Spruce in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Climate Change

LI Ning-Ning1, ZHANG Ai-Ping2, ZHANG Lin2, WANG Ke-Qing2, LUO Hong-Yan1, PAN Kai-Wen2   

  1. 1. College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716;
    2. Key Laboratory of Mountain Ecological Restoration and Bioresource Utilization/Sichuan Province Key Laboratory of Ecological Restoration and Biodiversity Conservation, Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 610041
  • Received:2018-12-20 Online:2019-05-05 Published:2019-05-11
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41301315);National Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing(Csts2012JJA80024);The national Key R&D Program of China(2016YFC0502101)

Abstract: We predicted the potential distribution of spruce under the future climate change with Picea likiangensis and P.purpurea in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution of the two species under two future climatic scenarios-2050s and 2070s. Further, we used ArcGIS software to determine the distribution area and spatial pattern of both species. The results indicatedthat:(1)Southwestern Sichuan and eastern Tibet regions were the potential distribution areas of P.likiangensis, while northwestern Sichuan, southern Gansu, southeastern Qinghai and eastern Tibet were the areas that would favor the potential distribution for P.purpurea. (2)In two future climatic periods, distribution areas of P.likiangensis generally increase, whereas, in case of P.purpurea, the distribution areas first increase and then decrease. However, the area of the total suitable distribution increase toso me extent, compared with the area of current distribution. (3)The potential distribution of P.likiangensis was likely to disperse towards north while P.purpurea to the west. (4)Moreover, the precipitation of warmest quarter and the mean temperature of warmest quarter were the primary climatic factors affecting the distribution of P.likiangensis and P.purpurea. This study can provide a theoretical basis and reference value for the sustainable management and conservation of P.likiangensis and P.purpurea under climate change scenarios.

Key words: Picea likiangensis, Picea purpurea, prediction of potential distribution, MaxEnt model, climate change

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