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Bulletin of Botanical Research ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (2): 180-191.doi: 10.7525/j.issn.1673-5102.2024.02.003

• Systematic and Evolutionary • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Response of Potential Geographic Distribution of Amygdalus mongolica to Climate Change

Xiaohui HE1,2, Jian GAO1(), Li ZHU1, Ruimin HAO1, Lei HUANG1, jin ZHU1, Li CHENG1, Jie ZHOU1   

  1. 1.Faculty of Ecology and Environment,Baotou Teachers’ College,Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology,Baotou 014030
    2.Northwest Institute of Eco-environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Key Laboratory of Eco-hydrology of Inland River Basin,Lanzhou 730000
  • Received:2022-11-30 Online:2024-03-20 Published:2024-03-11
  • Contact: Jian GAO E-mail:gaojian5688@163.com

Abstract:

To understand the distribution characteristics of Amygdalus mongolica, a rare and endangered Tertiary in the Mongolian Plateau, and its response to future climatic change, climate and soil variables with 121 population distribution points of A. mongolica were selected, and the comprehensive habitat suitability model(CHS) in the R software Biomod2 modeling platform was constructed, which was used to simulate and predict suitable habitat under the current climatic condition and three different future climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) in the future(2050S and 2090S), and the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics was analyzed, and the migration pattern of suitable habitat was explored. The results showed that the TSS of the climate suitability model (ensemble model) was >0.75, the ROC of the distribution limitation model was >0.90, which indicated that the comprehensive habitat suitability model selected in this study might accurately simulate the potential geographical distribution characteristics of A. mongolica under different climate scenarios. The suitable habitat area of A. mongolica at present was 64.00×104 km2, mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Ningxia, a small number distribution in Qinghai, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei and other places. The suitable habitat area of A. mongolica showed a decreasing trend under three climate change scenarios(SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) in the future, and the suitable habitat area under different climate scenarios in 2090S was smaller than that in 2050S. Its suitable distribution area extended to the west and higher latitudes as a whole.

Key words: Amygdalus mongolica, climate change, comprehensive habitat suitability model, suitable habitat

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