Effects of Climate Change on the Suitable Area and Niche of Cunninghamia lanceolata

doi:10.7525/j.issn.1673-5102.2022.01.016

Abstract

Abstract:

Cunninghamia lanceolata is the main afforestation tree species in China， which has important functions of medicine， economy and ecological service. With the trend of continued global warming， climate has become an important factor restricting the survival and development of species， among which spatial distribution and niche changes are crucial to the interpretation of ecological processes. To analyze the response of C. lanceolata to future climate warming， 211 C. lanceolata distribution points and 20 environmental variables were taken， MaxEnt model and ecospat R software package were used as methods. The results showed that the current potential suitable area of C. lanceolata was 2.196 7 million km²， about 22.88% of the total land area， mainly distributed in the east of 800 mm equivalent precipitation line. Mean annual temperature， diurnal mean temperature difference and driest monthly rainfall were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of C. lanceolata. The suitable area of C. lanceolata would migrate along the latitude and longitude directions， and the area of highly and moderately suitable habitats continue to decrease. Principal component analysis（PCA） showed that the climatic niches of C. lanceolata shifted and expanded under different representative concentration paths in different periods， and the centers of the climatic niches would move to the average annual temperature and the warmest seasonal rainfall. The niche overlap index would show a trend of continuous decline， and the niche overlap rate of RCP8.5 show the most obvious decline. The results showed that global warming would change the spatial distribution of species， and affect the existing ecosystem to varying degrees. The research on the relationship between C. lanceolata and climate change expanded people’s understanding of climate change and the ecological characteristics of plant species， and provided a theoretical basis for the protection and utilization of C. lanceolata and even arbors species.

Key words: Cunninghamia lanceolata, MaxEnt model, climate change, potential suitable area, niche changes

CLC Number:

S791.27

Xinggang Tang, Yingdan Yuan, Jinchi Zhang. Effects of Climate Change on the Suitable Area and Niche of Cunninghamia lanceolata[J]. Bulletin of Botanical Research, 2022, 42(1): 151-160.

Figures/Tables 6

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