关键词: 翅果油树, 濒危种群, 生命表, 生存分析, 谱分析

Abstract: It is very valuable to discuss the endangered mechanism of Elaeagnus mollis Diels, endemic to China, which is seriously in danger presently. Based on the theory of survival analysis, the size-class structure was studied, the time-specific life table, curve of survival, and curve of mortality were drawn, and at the same time, survival functions of survival rate, cumulative mortality rate and mortality density were analyzed. With the theory of spectral analysis, the fluctuation of population was also analyzed. The main results are as follows: (1) the size-class structure of the whole population is of increasing type. (2) the time-specific life table shows that the change of mortality rate fluctuates, which is similar to that of killing power. The curve of survival generally trends to be DeeveyⅡtype according to statistical test, and the peak of expected life appears at 17 to 21 size-class. (3) the 4 survival functions show that the change of population in early stage is bigger than that in the late stage. The change of mortality numbers shows a considerable similarity to that of mortality density, and the change of endangered rate is similar to that of mortality rate. (4) the spectral analysis indicates that, in the natural regeneration, the small period overlaps within the big one, and the period is greatly affected by fundamental wave.

Key words: Elaeagnus mollis Diels, endangered population, life table, survival analysis, spectral analysis