植物研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (2): 168-179.doi: 10.7525/j.issn.1673-5102.2024.02.002
李小莉1,2, 苏旭1,2,3, 王东4, 刘玉萍1,2,3(), 陈金元1,2, 孙成林1,2
收稿日期:
2023-06-05
出版日期:
2024-03-20
发布日期:
2024-03-11
通讯作者:
刘玉萍
E-mail:lyp8527970@126.com
作者简介:
李小莉(1998—),女,硕士研究生,主要从事高山植物遗传多样性与系统进化。
基金资助:
Xiaoli LI1,2, Xu SU1,2,3, Dong WANG4, Yuping LIU1,2,3(), Jinyuan CHEN1,2, Chenglin SUN1,2
Received:
2023-06-05
Online:
2024-03-20
Published:
2024-03-11
Contact:
Yuping LIU
E-mail:lyp8527970@126.com
摘要:
为探究唐古特红景天(Rhodiola tangutica)在青藏高原的潜在适宜分布及其生态适应性,基于唐古特红景天青藏高原38个分布位点以及当前和未来5个时期7个环境因子,利用MaxEnt模型构建唐古特红景天分布与环境因子的关系模型,模拟和验证当前时期1970—2000年与SSP245情景模式下未来4个时期(2030s、2050s、2070s和2090s)的潜在地理分布格局。结果表明:(1)海拔(Alt)和最干月份降水量(Bio14)是影响唐古特红景天地理分布格局的最主要生态因子,贡献率分别为89.3%和4.9%。(2)当前气候背景下,唐古特红景天在青藏高原地区的适宜分布区总面积为195.21×104 km2,主要位于青海南部和东北部、四川西北部及西藏中部等。(3)与当前时期相比,未来4个时期唐古特红景天的适宜分布区总面积变化不太明显,但高适宜区面积却有所增加,呈现出向青藏高原中部集中分布的趋势。
中图分类号:
李小莉, 苏旭, 王东, 刘玉萍, 陈金元, 孙成林. 气候变化背景下青藏高原特有种唐古特红景天的地理分布格局预测[J]. 植物研究, 2024, 44(2): 168-179.
Xiaoli LI, Xu SU, Dong WANG, Yuping LIU, Jinyuan CHEN, Chenglin SUN. Prediction of the Geographical Distribution Pattern of Rhodiola tangutica(Crassulaceae) under the Background of Climate Change, an Endemic Species from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Bulletin of Botanical Research, 2024, 44(2): 168-179.
表1
生态因子对MaxEnt模型构建的贡献率
气候因子 Climate factor | 描述 Description | 贡献百分比 Contribution percent/% | 排列重要性 Permutation importance |
---|---|---|---|
Alt | 海拔Altitude | 89.3 | 73.5 |
Bio14 | 最干月份降水量 Precipitation of Driest Month | 4.9 | 16.1 |
Slope | 坡度Slope | 2.8 | 5.7 |
Aspect | 坡向Aspect | 1.2 | 0.8 |
Bio3 | 等温性Isothermality | 1.0 | 2.2 |
Bio7 | 年温变化范围 Temperature Annual Range | 0.4 | 1.3 |
Bio19 | 最冷季度降水量 Precipitation of Coldest Quarter | 0.4 | 0.4 |
表2
唐古特红景天潜在适宜区面积变化
预测时段 Prediction period | 适宜区面积Suitable area/104 km2 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
非适宜区 Unsuitable area | 低适宜区 Low suitable area | 中适宜区 Moderately suitable area | 高适宜区 Highly suitable area | |
1970—2000年 | 54.79 | 51.14 | 79.33 | 64.74 |
2021—2040年 | 58.26 | 46.19 | 75.56 | 70.00 |
2041—2060年 | 58.84 | 43.96 | 75.85 | 71.35 |
2061—2080年 | 59.78 | 49.28 | 74.01 | 66.93 |
2081—2100年 | 57.32 | 36.32 | 75.87 | 80.49 |
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