森林覆被率等因子与PM2.5的时间滞后效应的研究

doi:10.7525/j.issn.1673-5102.2020.05.003

植物研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (5): 659-665.doi: 10.7525/j.issn.1673-5102.2020.05.003

森林覆被率等因子与PM_2.5的时间滞后效应的研究

李三, 郭金禄, 郑煜

东北林业大学理学院, 哈尔滨 150040

收稿日期:2020-03-20 出版日期:2020-09-05 发布日期:2020-07-10
通讯作者: 郑煜(1962-),女,教授,主要从事概率论与数理统计方面的研究,E-mail:zhengyu62@126.com E-mail:zhengyu62@126.com
作者简介:李三(1992-),男,硕士研究生,主要从事概率论与数理统计方面的研究。
基金资助:
黑龙江省自然科学基金面上项目（G2016001）

Relation between Forest Cover Rate and Time Lag of PM_2.5

LI San, GUO Jin-Lu, ZHENG Yu

College of Science, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040

Received:2020-03-20 Online:2020-09-05 Published:2020-07-10
Supported by:
General Project of Heilongjiang Natural Science Foundation(G2016001)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用黑龙江省13个市（区）的170 820个数据，运用2SLS方法以森林覆被率等11个影响因素为指标，建立了3个不同时间段的静态面板和动态面板回归模型，探究了森林覆被率等影响因素与PM_2.5时间滞后效应的关系。结果表明：①PM_2.5的时间滞后效应是当期PM_2.5浓度积累的影响因素，且随着时间的推移，PM_2.5时间滞后效应对当期PM_2.5浓度积累的促进作用逐渐减弱；②随着PM_2.5时间滞后效应的逐渐减弱，森林覆被率、气温对PM_2.5浓度积累所起的阻碍作用逐渐增强，PM₁₀、CO对PM_2.5浓度积累的促进作用逐渐增强，而风速对当期PM_2.5浓度积累所起的阻碍作用逐渐减弱；③PM_2.5时间滞后效应呈现出惯性的同时，森林覆被率、PM₁₀、CO、气温、风速对PM_2.5的作用也具有了惯性。

关键词: 森林覆被率, PM_2.5时间滞后效应, 动态面板数据模型, 2SLS方法

Abstract: With 170 820 data from 13 cities(districts) in Heilongjiang Province, by using the 2SLS method to take 11 influencing factors such as forest cover as variable, we established three different time periods of static panel and dynamic panel regression models, and discussed the relationship between the lag effect of PM_2.5 and the influencing factors such as forest cover rate. The results show that:①the time lag effect of PM_2.5 is the influencing factor of the PM_2.5 concentration accumulation in the current period, and the promotion effect of the PM_2.5 time lag effect on the PM_2.5 concentration accumulation was gradually weakened with the passage of time. ②With the gradual weakening of the time lag effect of PM_2.5, the forest cover rate and air temperature gradually increased the hindrance of PM_2.5 concentration accumulation, PM₁₀ and CO gradually enhanced the promotion effect of PM_2.5 accumulation, however, the obstacle effect of wind speed increasing PM_2.5 concentration accumulation was gradually weakened. ③While the time lag effect of PM_2.5 showed inertia, the effects of forest cover, PM₁₀, CO, air temperature, and the wind speed on PM_2.5 also had inertia.

Key words: forest cover, time lag effect of PM_2.5, dynamic panel data model, 2SLS method

中图分类号:

S718.51

李三, 郭金禄, 郑煜. 森林覆被率等因子与PM_2.5的时间滞后效应的研究[J]. 植物研究, 2020, 40(5): 659-665.

LI San, GUO Jin-Lu, ZHENG Yu. Relation between Forest Cover Rate and Time Lag of PM_2.5[J]. Bulletin of Botanical Research, 2020, 40(5): 659-665.

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森林覆被率等因子与PM_2.5的时间滞后效应的研究

Relation between Forest Cover Rate and Time Lag of PM_2.5

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森林覆被率等因子与PM2.5的时间滞后效应的研究

Relation between Forest Cover Rate and Time Lag of PM2.5

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森林覆被率等因子与PM_2.5的时间滞后效应的研究

Relation between Forest Cover Rate and Time Lag of PM_2.5